by Jay Lawson
I am into politics in a big way. I should clarify. I hate politics. But since I am into monitoring the meandering means by which we govern ourselves in this country, I, by extension, am forced to pay attention to the people who do the actual governing and the process by which they assume their power. Politics.
This has been a golden year for me, someone who has watched elections with interest much of his life, and has often enjoyed the process somewhat.
I don’t consider myself idealogical, not in the go-team-go political party sense. But rather I am somebody who agrees with some, disagrees with others, and can think of few that reside for any amount of time in either camp.
Anyway, I have been enjoying this election year immensely. Happy for the involvement of Bernie Sanders, a non-political man of principle, in my opinion, and The Donald, who has systematically placed our whole country on trial, exposing its weaknesses, vulnerabilities, ignorance, and arrogance.
This country needed Donald Trump.
Few (if any) could have parlayed such exceedingly cringeworthy public behavior into a mega-ton assault on our American culture and political establishment.
When it’s done, no individual or institution will have emerged from The Donald Experience without a much needed reexamination themselves and the role they played.
Donald has taken what should have been a blip campaign and, through the exploitation of weaknesses in our system, successfully marched the smug and powerful into a circular firing squad.
Having said that, I was shocked for the first time, when this week Donald Trump scored 46 percent of the vote in the Nevada caucuses.
Having followed these things for decades, I was expecting Donald to hang around 28 to 36 percent in the polls, while the other candidates elbowed each other, made deals, dropped out, and redirected supporters, until a clear Anti-Trump challenger emerged.
At which time, The Donald will gradually succumb to doubts of voters as to his Novem-ber electability.
But, The Donald pulled 46 percent of the vote in Nevada—in a FIVE-PERSON RACE.
Never in a million years thought that was possible. That kind of support could never be overstated, not even with Trump-style hyperbole.
Can Trump be beaten at this point?
That big number in Nevada makes it tough. But a poll today in Alabama gives a squeak of hope.
Trump is showing 36 percent of the vote, which is where challengers need to keep him.
Marco Rubio is at 19, having moved up 7 percent.
The important number is for Ted Cruz. He is only polling at 12 percent, having dropped five.
That could mean an Anti-Trump movement is starting to form around Rubio.
If Cruz, a southern evangelical candidate, loses a Bible belt state like Alabama (and others on Super Tuesday) his candidacy could fast become “Jeb Bush: The Remake.” This in turn could precipitate not only his departure, but that of Ben Carson and John Kasich.
Leaving Rubio vs. Trump.
If this scenario were to take shape—and the Anti-Trumps in the party hope it will—a showdown could be on the horizon in Rubio’s home state of Florida. A Trump victory there could be devastating, especially if it is coupled with a defeat of Kasich in HIS home state.
Effectively, Donald Trump could—without probability of any other outcome—become the GOP nominee on March 15th.
And, though he has a sizable personal fortune, Trump would have fueled the entire enterprise, not with money, but rather a potent mix of celebrity and political incorrectness.